Thun
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Shipment schedules(update?)

Thu May 19, 2016 7:06 pm

Hi everyone. I know foundation is tired of all this rant about Pi zero availibility(especially with so many bullshit arguments...) but I wanted to ask for update for this thread from february: viewtopic.php?t=135081
Is it going to be like said in this thread or differently? Because this monday every shop got stock. And will you ship every week to those shops or will schedule be different?

Can't wait for next stock(like everyone) or maybe next zero(considering awesome update to v1.3 :D)

Thanks in advance and keep up good work! :)

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liz
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Thu May 19, 2016 7:34 pm

The plan is to ship to one US and one UK seller every Monday. We may add small shipments in between those if we have capacity; we're also building stock that isn't being sent out immediately while we're doing that.
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Thun
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Thu May 19, 2016 7:49 pm

Thanks!
I think other people were also wondering about that. Great message

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Jednorozec
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Thu May 19, 2016 9:35 pm

I think that you should ship a lot more to Adafruit than to Micro Center who doesn't sell the Zero online and is accessible to only a small percentage of people in the US.
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 12:07 am

I'm still really concerned whether this thing will ever be available in sufficient quantities. I'm sure you'll keep up with single-orders as long as there's a limit of one per person. But I want to order 10, and am waiting for that to be possible. It's hardly worth it to order just one, especially when you consider shipping charges. I am pretty sure there are a lot of people taking the same approach as me.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 12:37 am

liz wrote:The plan is to ship to one US and one UK seller every Monday. We may add small shipments in between those if we have capacity; we're also building stock that isn't being sent out immediately while we're doing that.
I was thinking a little about the challenges of Pi Zero availability, when it occurred to me that I have never bought as many new computers in such a short time as since the Pi Zero became available. I have managed to snag 3 so far, but based on posts I have seen, there are many people who have bought a lot more - a lot who have been buying from the Pi Hut and Pimoroni, for instance - many who have bought 2 in the last week.

The reality is that the Pi Zero is a game changer, much as the Pi 1 was when it came out, but in a different way.

The disruptive nature of the Pi Zero is part of what is making the demand for it so difficult to satisfy. At the Zero's price point, it is perfect to use as the "brains of an appliance". For instance, one of the things I want to do with a Zero is make an Airplay receiver. With the Zero, the economics become very simple. Using a PHAT DAC I can build an airplay receiver for under $50 when a new Airport Express would cost $109. (That is in AUD.) A Pi3 B costs $56 from Element14. Once you add a DAC and a couple of bit and pieces you start getting close to the price of an Airport Express - the decision becomes harder. With the Zero, the decision is a no-brainer.

These factors are changing again the way people want to buy computing resources, clearly putting a different level of pressure on the supply chain.
What could be interesting to see is whether the Pi Zero drives higher volumes of sales of HATs and other kits that use a Pi as their brain. As the cost of the Pi itself becomes negligible, a gadget that uses an inexpensive HAT becomes very cheap.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 8:14 am

yodermk wrote:I'm still really concerned whether this thing will ever be available in sufficient quantities. I'm sure you'll keep up with single-orders as long as there's a limit of one per person. But I want to order 10, and am waiting for that to be possible. It's hardly worth it to order just one, especially when you consider shipping charges. I am pretty sure there are a lot of people taking the same approach as me.
There are many who have similar plans, but patience is all I can suggest. Manufacturing in running in the many thousands per week AIUI, so I expect supply will slowly catch up with demand.
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geoffr
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 10:29 am

jamesh wrote:
yodermk wrote:I'm still really concerned whether this thing will ever be available in sufficient quantities. I'm sure you'll keep up with single-orders as long as there's a limit of one per person. But I want to order 10, and am waiting for that to be possible. It's hardly worth it to order just one, especially when you consider shipping charges. I am pretty sure there are a lot of people taking the same approach as me.
There are many who have similar plans, but patience is all I can suggest. Manufacturing in running in the many thousands per week AIUI, so I expect supply will slowly catch up with demand.
I suspect the problem is really one of pent-up demand. There are lots of people out there who can find uses for 4 or 5 (or maybe even 10) Pi Zeros. Once they've got through those projects, they will stop ordering. Once that initial demand is satisfied, you will see sanity return.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 10:45 am

geoffr wrote:
jamesh wrote:
yodermk wrote:I'm still really concerned whether this thing will ever be available in sufficient quantities. I'm sure you'll keep up with single-orders as long as there's a limit of one per person. But I want to order 10, and am waiting for that to be possible. It's hardly worth it to order just one, especially when you consider shipping charges. I am pretty sure there are a lot of people taking the same approach as me.
There are many who have similar plans, but patience is all I can suggest. Manufacturing in running in the many thousands per week AIUI, so I expect supply will slowly catch up with demand.
I suspect the problem is really one of pent-up demand. There are lots of people out there who can find uses for 4 or 5 (or maybe even 10) Pi Zeros. Once they've got through those projects, they will stop ordering. Once that initial demand is satisfied, you will see sanity return.
That is indeed my expectation. Then the demand is mostly those that that to put Zero's in to commercial projects who will want larger batches, and schools of course, although my preference is for the higher powered devices in education.
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fruitoftheloom
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 10:52 am

geoffr wrote:
jamesh wrote:
yodermk wrote:I'm still really concerned whether this thing will ever be available in sufficient quantities. I'm sure you'll keep up with single-orders as long as there's a limit of one per person. But I want to order 10, and am waiting for that to be possible. It's hardly worth it to order just one, especially when you consider shipping charges. I am pretty sure there are a lot of people taking the same approach as me.
There are many who have similar plans, but patience is all I can suggest. Manufacturing in running in the many thousands per week AIUI, so I expect supply will slowly catch up with demand.
I suspect the problem is really one of pent-up demand. There are lots of people out there who can find uses for 4 or 5 (or maybe even 10) Pi Zeros. Once they've got through those projects, they will stop ordering. Once that initial demand is satisfied, you will see sanity return.
Also from the various response in this forum, it would appear that Commercial Products are being planned around the ZERO, which will also push up initial demand.

Though according to this Podcast: http://thepipodcast.com/the-pi-podcast-22-eben-upton we may see a new revision before current demand is fulfilled.

It could take months for the situation of supply vs demand to be at at a sensible level, considering the same SoC is needed for the RPi 1A+ & 1B+....

But all this has been discussed ad-infinitum, but he-ho regurgitation rules !!!!!
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Thun
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 11:10 am

Remember that Pi zero isn't manufactured in external factories so it takes time to produce them. We need to be patient. I also want to buy more than one and I didn't buy them this monday but there is nothing more to do than just wait. But considering that there will be stock every week I hope that soon they will set this limit higher.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 11:51 am

geoffr wrote:I suspect the problem is really one of pent-up demand. There are lots of people out there who can find uses for 4 or 5 (or maybe even 10) Pi Zeros. Once they've got through those projects, they will stop ordering. Once that initial demand is satisfied, you will see sanity return.
Possibly but I don't have much confidence in production numbers matching demand any time soon. The 250K order placed six weeks ago hasn't materialised yet and intent to ramp-up to 50K per month will only slowly satisfy demand.

Even if 50K are produced a month, it is going to take nearly two years to satisfy demand for one million Zeroes which I don't think is far off the mark for Zeroes now, and it is probably higher given the recent addition of the CSI connector.

The Zero is a product which is so cheap that it is not that feasible to make and we are simply seeing the consequences of that. Unless the Foundation and Sony can figure out a way to manufacture more without damaging their revenue streams I think we are stuck with what we have for the foreseeable future.

It's not an unusual situation; it has happened with Kickstarter and other crowd-funded projects in the past and commercial ventures are well aware of the intrinsic problems of manufacturing extremely low profit items. The Foundation have shown that low profit manufacturing is possible but the Zero is pushing at the limits of that.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 11:53 am

Thun wrote:Remember that Pi zero isn't manufactured in external factories so it takes time to produce them.
I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say here... AFAIK neither Raspberry Pi Trading nor the Raspberry Pi Foundation have their own in-house PCB assembly facilities. It's contracted out, which is a pretty standard thing to do for consumer electronics. Frankly they'd be barmy to even try to do consumer-level PCB assembly in-house; the hardware and resources involved are very costly.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 12:09 pm

All ZERO are manufactured by Sony Pencoed, though do not know who supplies the PCB or other components..

It would appear producing the BCM2835 SoC is the bottleneck.....
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 12:18 pm

fruitoftheloom wrote:It would appear producing the BCM2835 SoC is the bottleneck.....
That seems to be the current cause of delays and plans not panning out as desired, but I am not convinced it will be the bottleneck in matching production numbers to demand.

Sony would have to switch 30% of production to manufacturing Zeroes to satisfy current demand in under six months and that simply isn't likely to happen given the consequential impact on revenue and manufacture of other Pi products.

It would also seem unlikely that 30% extra production capacity could be added given the low profit margin of the Zero.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 12:56 pm

fruitoftheloom wrote:All ZERO are manufactured by Sony Pencoed, though do not know who supplies the PCB or other components..

It would appear producing the BCM2835 SoC is the bottleneck.....
Been investigating. It's the lead time on the chip that is a delay, not the actual production - 250k chips is only a day or two, but to get them as cheap as possible you have to get in the queue, and for 40nm, it's a big queue as its a major size, used by a lot of people. Months, 3-4 at least.

So once the order does get to manufacture, you get all the chips pretty quickly, after that is fitting the run in to the final production line.
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 12:59 pm

hippy wrote:
geoffr wrote:I suspect the problem is really one of pent-up demand. There are lots of people out there who can find uses for 4 or 5 (or maybe even 10) Pi Zeros. Once they've got through those projects, they will stop ordering. Once that initial demand is satisfied, you will see sanity return.
Possibly but I don't have much confidence in production numbers matching demand any time soon. The 250K order placed six weeks ago hasn't materialised yet and intent to ramp-up to 50K per month will only slowly satisfy demand.

Even if 50K are produced a month, it is going to take nearly two years to satisfy demand for one million Zeroes which I don't think is far off the mark for Zeroes now, and it is probably higher given the recent addition of the CSI connector.

The Zero is a product which is so cheap that it is not that feasible to make and we are simply seeing the consequences of that. Unless the Foundation and Sony can figure out a way to manufacture more without damaging their revenue streams I think we are stuck with what we have for the foreseeable future.

It's not an unusual situation; it has happened with Kickstarter and other crowd-funded projects in the past and commercial ventures are well aware of the intrinsic problems of manufacturing extremely low profit items. The Foundation have shown that low profit manufacturing is possible but the Zero is pushing at the limits of that.
There one number in this post that is interesting. Demand of One million. How does anyone know what the demand is? That's the big issue. Plucking numbers out of the air could have drastic consequences.

How does one determine demand for something like this? There is nothing out there to compare, so no history. Not easy.
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 1:08 pm

jamesh wrote:
fruitoftheloom wrote:All ZERO are manufactured by Sony Pencoed, though do not know who supplies the PCB or other components..

It would appear producing the BCM2835 SoC is the bottleneck.....
Been investigating. It's the lead time on the chip that is a delay, not the actual production - 250k chips is only a day or two, but to get them as cheap as possible you have to get in the queue, and for 40nm, it's a big queue as its a major size, used by a lot of people. Months, 3-4 at least.

So once the order does get to manufacture, you get all the chips pretty quickly, after that is fitting the run in to the final production line.
Well that is good to know that it is theFAB Plant as I had gleaned from previous posts.

Looking forward to Summer and the various BCM2835 RPi's being in plentiful supply..
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 1:47 pm

$5 is too low :roll:
Had a thought, sell it for more, $7.50, 50% profit for Element 14 and RS ?
All the early adopters have spent way more than that to get their few Zeros.
When pent up demand satisfied? Like that will ever happen, not this year, not even next.
Like trying to fill a swimming pool in the desert in summer, with a bottle of water at a time.

How about reverse scaling, if you want one pay $5, 2 $6 each, 3 $7, 4 $8, 5 $10... 10 $20
With more profits, place bigger orders for parts, Sony runs three shifts, builds new factory ......
How may factories does it take to fill demand, stay tuned.
Broadcom sells off WiFi stuff to make money/room for CPU expansion?
Solves one problem, WiFi chip is now Cypress's hassle to make enough, TJ will be having fun.

Must make for exciting pub lunches.
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 2:06 pm

fruitoftheloom wrote: It could take months for the situation of supply vs demand to be at at a sensible level, considering the same SoC is needed for the RPi 1A+ & 1B+....
Don't forget the actual commercial version of the Pi, the CM. When the CM3 and Pi3A finally arrive, that should ease the pressure on the SoC supply, but not on production capacity.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 2:07 pm

jamesh wrote:There one number in this post that is interesting. Demand of One million. How does anyone know what the demand is? That's the big issue. Plucking numbers out of the air could have drastic consequences.

How does one determine demand for something like this? There is nothing out there to compare, so no history. Not easy.
No, getting it right isn't easy. There won't ever be an absolute number, just a bell-curve of possibilities and likelihoods. The better one knows the market, its demands and desires, how well a particular product seems to meet those demands and the desires, the better one's confidence in predications can be.

Every company developing, or even considering developing a product, faces the challenge of not knowing what the market will actually be. It is not a new problem for business or manufacturing. It's not an impossible problem.

Plucking numbers out of the air, or getting it dramatically wrong, can indeed have drastic consequences.

The Foundation unfortunately has a history of doing that, under-estimating demand, and the situation for the Zero is pretty much the same as it was for the original Pi when it was believed only a few tens of thousands would ever be wanted, when predictions of a million or more sales were being laughed out of court.

Note that I have never criticised building only 10,000 to start with - that was mostly a matter of finance and risk - it's the gross failing to realise its actual potential which was the real problem.

History repeats itself with the Zero when the prediction was better but still a mere "100K at first" and "hoping it will have a life after that" (MagPi#40). That prediction has become a more realistic 250K now and 50K per month; or 600K-800K per year. My 'a million' estimate isn't that for from that.

To suggest the Foundation could not have done better is I believe merely excuse making and refusal to accept the Foundation got it wrong. There is nothing wrong in getting it wrong; we can all learn and better ourselves from past mistakes, but first we have to acknowledge them.

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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 2:13 pm

Gavinmc42 wrote:$5 is too low :roll:
Had a thought, sell it for more, $7.50, 50% profit for Element 14 and RS ?
All the early adopters have spent way more than that to get their few Zeros.
When pent up demand satisfied? Like that will ever happen, not this year, not even next.
Like trying to fill a swimming pool in the desert in summer, with a bottle of water at a time.

How about reverse scaling, if you want one pay $5, 2 $6 each, 3 $7, 4 $8, 5 $10... 10 $20
With more profits, place bigger orders for parts, Sony runs three shifts, builds new factory ......
How may factories does it take to fill demand, stay tuned.
Broadcom sells off WiFi stuff to make money/room for CPU expansion?
Solves one problem, WiFi chip is now Cypress's hassle to make enough, TJ will be having fun.

Must make for exciting pub lunches.
Total Baloney.... :roll:
Retired disgracefully.....

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liz
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Re: Shipment schedules(update?)

Fri May 20, 2016 2:27 pm

And I think it's time to close this. Please note: Monday shipment does NOT mean Monday stock, necessarily.
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