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RaTTuS
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Fri Dec 11, 2015 8:45 am

8k backers now , x10 oversubscribed ...
chances are there may be some scaling problems - though I do wish it well
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W. H. Heydt
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Fri Dec 11, 2015 4:26 pm

RaTTuS wrote:8k backers now , x10 oversubscribed ...
chances are there may be some scaling problems - though I do wish it well
One thing that may help them survive is that "early bird" (Feb. shipping) 2GB version sold all 1000 units, so that is limited to what they think they can handle.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:09 pm

I think the big problem with KS style campaigns that sell over the odds, if you are intending for the first round to be a loss leader to get people in, you are in big trouble. I suspect CHIP may be on the verge of issues like that, although I presume they are backed by AllWinner, so perhaps not a big issue. Allwinner want to make big inroads to SoC markets, and this is a cheap way of doing it.
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:44 pm

jamesh wrote:I think the big problem with KS style campaigns that sell over the odds, if you are intending for the first round to be a loss leader to get people in, you are in big trouble. I suspect CHIP may be on the verge of issues like that, although I presume they are backed by AllWinner, so perhaps not a big issue. Allwinner want to make big inroads to SoC markets, and this is a cheap way of doing it.
Could be. Could also be that PINE64 has similar backing as they are also using an Allwinner SoC.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Sat Dec 12, 2015 9:25 am

W. H. Heydt wrote:
jamesh wrote:I think the big problem with KS style campaigns that sell over the odds, if you are intending for the first round to be a loss leader to get people in, you are in big trouble. I suspect CHIP may be on the verge of issues like that, although I presume they are backed by AllWinner, so perhaps not a big issue. Allwinner want to make big inroads to SoC markets, and this is a cheap way of doing it.
Could be. Could also be that PINE64 has similar backing as they are also using an Allwinner SoC.
That's certainly what some people think...
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:14 am

Psypro wrote:
Suggestion:
Dont hide this gold. ...
It's not hidden, it's on a publicly searchable UK Government web site.
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:18 am

DougieLawson wrote:
Psypro wrote:
Suggestion:
Dont hide this gold. ...
It's not hidden, it's on a publicly searchable UK Government web site.
Some people do not know how to Google :shock:
Retired disgracefully.....

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 15, 2015 4:46 am

Longer baseline projection... 6 days in, the average number of backers is a bit under 2K per day, which would project out to 90K backers at the end. Bear in mind that there were 4500 backers on the the first day, so the 90K projection is very likely to be high...and quite possibly by a fair amount.

So..taking 90K backers and assuming an average of a bit over 1 board each (to make it easy), call it a current estimate that they will ship 100K boards from the KS campaign.

The "1 million boards in 30 days" is looking less and less likely, even if one weren't dubious about how they could get that many manufactured in such a time frame. (Can you say "not going to happen"? I knew you could....)

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Sat Dec 19, 2015 6:50 am

Projection on 10 days of data...
Estimated total backers will be under 60K.
Estimated total boards to meet pledges: under 70K.
If present trends continue, these numbers will both drop, possibly by quite a lot.

(Note for comparison that one week of normal--that is is not pushing the limits of what the factory can do--for Pis is about 75K.)

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:59 am

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Mon Dec 21, 2015 5:35 pm

RaTTuS wrote:http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/pine64 ... er-comput/
but INO closer to 1Mil
Interesting. I wonder if their projection is linear or if it takes any higher order curve properties into account. Even if you took their projected total backing amount (a bit over $2 million) and assumed it was all $15 board, plus shipping (at the US rate), it would project out to about 100K boards. However, given their "average pledge" value of $42, it would come out a lot closer to 50K boards.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:56 pm

I foresee a lot of disappointed people here.

stderr
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Mon Dec 21, 2015 9:37 pm

Heater wrote:I foresee a lot of disappointed people here.
Here or there? People are hoping for the best, right? It's not like this project is being done with a Cam Newton pearly white smirk and Superman stance.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Mon Dec 21, 2015 10:06 pm

Here or there. I don't know.

It's over subscribed by a factor of 10 or more so we need not worry. They have the funding they require.

It's just another SBC at the end of the day.

Let's see how it goes.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:33 am

Have Allwinner had any success with anyboard so far ?

seems like there are over 100 diffrent boards all by diffrent vendors and all with 3.x kernels (due to their binary blobs).

just ashame that their flooding the market with these boards since its always some poor sucker that have to give support on em when users starts to install stuff on em like Kodi and without HW acceleration its gonna be hard to watch 4k material.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:22 am

swe_toast wrote:just ashame that their flooding the market with these boards since its always some poor sucker that have to give support on em when users starts to install stuff on em like Kodi and without HW acceleration its gonna be hard to watch 4k material.
Just imagine how many people will be giving the things away after they can't use them for 4K material and then we can use them for command line Linux. I can't wait!

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:50 am

stderr wrote:
swe_toast wrote:just ashame that their flooding the market with these boards since its always some poor sucker that have to give support on em when users starts to install stuff on em like Kodi and without HW acceleration its gonna be hard to watch 4k material.
Just imagine how many people will be giving the things away after they can't use them for 4K material and then we can use them for command line Linux. I can't wait!
tagging for reference ;-p
I agree
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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:44 pm

swe_toast wrote:Have Allwinner had any success with anyboard so far ?
I think that depends on what you mean by "success" and how long a board has to be available to be "successful". So far as I know, you can still get some models of Cubieboard and I believe the Banana Pi is still around. Both those lines use Allwinner SoCs.

Part of the problem is that the Pi has taken the SBC market by storm and greatly expanded it. It is no longer true that selling 10s of thousands to a few hundred thousand boards is a big deal. Everyone is looking at the Pi having sold over 7 million (probably over 8 million by now) and they judge "success" on that scale. To the best of my--admittedly limited--knowledge, behind the Pi, the best selling boards are the Beagleboard line, and their sales are around 400K by now. That would have been considered a run away success five years ago.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:55 pm

Many boards are a success. If it does what you want it's good. Sheer sales numbers are no judge of success.

Before the Pi was launched we were looking around for small, low power, cheap alternatives to industrial PC's. We ended up using IGEP ARM boards from ISEE. They did the job, at a fraction of the previous cost, still available, job done.

The Pi made this look like a joke. The IGEP was about 200 Euros! But hey it has a temp spec down to -40C

If you want the latest and greatest dodad get whatever is offering that. If you want stability, longevity, support, get a Pi.

If it does what you need of course.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:40 pm

Heater wrote:If you want the latest and greatest dodad get whatever is offering that. If you want stability, longevity, support, get a Pi. If it does what you need of course.
The Beaglebone Green seems to offer things stock that the pi just doesn't without add ons including the programmable real time units. Since I don't have any of the Green model, I just looked and it appears to have 4 gig of flash which is more than the original Black version. It's also clearly got support behind it.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:42 pm

Heater wrote:Many boards are a success. If it does what you want it's good. Sheer sales numbers are no judge of success.

Before the Pi was launched we were looking around for small, low power, cheap alternatives to industrial PC's. We ended up using IGEP ARM boards from ISEE. They did the job, at a fraction of the previous cost, still available, job done.

The Pi made this look like a joke. The IGEP was about 200 Euros! But hey it has a temp spec down to -40C

If you want the latest and greatest dodad get whatever is offering that. If you want stability, longevity, support, get a Pi.

If it does what you need of course.
As I alluded to, part of "success" (to me, at least), is longevity. If I need another identical or compatible device a year or two down the road, can I get one? I have a piece of equipment in the house at the moment that is suffering from that problem...I can't replace it or get another because the manufacturer has not only discontinued it, but isn't making anything like it at all any more and I can't find anyone else with such devices either.

(So I may as well ask...anyone know of a source for an inexpensive 2x2 audio matrix switch? Or do I have to see if I can design/get designed one myself, at which point I would add some "nice to have features".)

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Thu Dec 31, 2015 10:30 pm

Okay...the KS campaign is, near as makes no difference, half way to completion.

They have just over 17.3K pledges, so call it 17.5K to allow for the next hour and 20 minute..

Estimated final count: 35K pledges. Call it 40K boards for the KS campaign.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:04 pm

What I don't get is the idea of producing a machine with a 64 bit CPU and only 2GB or RAM? Pine is not the only only one. It's really annoying.

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:00 am

Heater wrote:What I don't get is the idea of producing a machine with a 64 bit CPU and only 2GB or RAM? Pine is not the only only one. It's really annoying.
2GB isn't unreasonable for a Linux system. The *really* weird version is the headline one with 512MB of RAM. I haven't restricted my builds to that since Win98 was current. Granted, the limited capabilities of many of the 32-bit ARM boards makes 512MB a usable amount, and there are some 32-bit boards with 2GB, but at 64-bit?

I don't think we'll see more than 2GB for a year or two, probably do to price pressure (assuming the SoCs *can* address more than that amount of physical memory.).

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Re: Pine64+ a good deal?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 7:45 am

>assuming the SoCs *can* address more than that amount of physical memory.).

32 bit address lines, Some other problem that makes max 3 gB
I bought for better io. 2 usb (controllers) and eth not usb bridged

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